You’ve probably heard about Concacaf’s new competition, the Concacaf Nations League, in passing, especially if you’re a Mexico fan. The Nations League is an attempt to create more meaningful competitive games within the region, but it comes at the cost of international friendlies. Now, personally, I think even for Mexico a competitive away game in Honduras is better than a friendly against the Belgium B Team, but that’s a topic for another day.
The Nations League will feature 12 teams in League A (4 groups), 16 teams in League B (4 groups), and 12 teams in League C (4 groups), but before we get to that point, we have to go through qualifying to see which group everyone ends up in. And it’s the qualifying phase that begins in early September, with 34 teams vying for places.
The six teams from the previous Hex automatically qualified to League A, and Guatemala will automatically be placed in League C due to their suspension from FIFA.
Now of course, there’s no time to make all 34 teams play against each other in a full league setup, so each team was seeded into Pots A-D, and they’ll play one game against a team from each pot. After all four rounds of matches have been played, the top six will qualify to League A, teams ranked 7th-22nd will qualify to League B, and teams ranked 23rd-34th will qualify to League C.
For a more detailed explanation, check out Concacaf’s official video here.
So with 17 matches to be played during the first round, let’s briefly preview each one:
Dominica (C) vs Suriname (B)
This game will be played at a neutral site in Guadeloupe, and I think that makes just enough of a difference to give the edge to Suriname.
Guyana (B) vs Barbados (C)
Barbados have had some very impressive results lately, including a 2-2 draw against a domestic based Jamaica team. I like them to beat Guyana on the road.
Anguilla (D) vs French Guiana (A)
The first of several clashes that are completely unbalanced. If you aren’t familiar with Anguilla, the only teams they’ve ever beaten are Montserrat and the British Virgin Islands. French Guiana can win this game by as many goals as they choose.
Antigua and Barbuda (B) vs Saint Lucia (C)
Antigua are significantly more prepared for this game, and they beat St Lucia 4-1 the last time they played during World Cup Qualifiers. My pick: Antigua and Barbuda.
Belize (B) vs Bahamas (C)
I’ll be honest, I’m not entirely sure how the Bahamas ended up in Pot C instead of D. Belize should have no problems here.
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (C) vs Nicaragua (B)
St. Vincent surprised a lot of people in the last cycle of qualifying, but Nicaragua are too much for them.
Cuba (A) vs Turks and Caicos Islands (D)
Another one of those one sided matches, where Cuba will probably win by 4 or 5 goals at least.
Montserrat (D) vs El Salvador (A)
Montserrat are probably the worst team in the world, and El Salvador might be the best team in the entire field. This could reach double digits.
Bonaire (C) vs Dominican Republic (B)
Bonaire are newcomers to international soccer, and they’ve got a tough first match. The Dominican Republic will be hoping to contend for a place in Group A, and I think they get the campaign started off on the right foot.
US Virgin Islands (D) vs Canada (A)
This game will be played in Florida, but that’s not the reason Canada are going to win. Another contender for biggest blowout.
Aruba (C) vs Bermuda (B)
Another neutral site game (Curaçao), in one of the most even match-ups of the first round. I think a draw is the most likely result.
Jamaica (A) vs Cayman Islands (D)
Jamaica at home against a very weak Cayman Islands team is probably a game you can skip. No upsets incoming here.
Saint Kitts & Nevis (B) vs Puerto Rico (C)
This to me is the most interesting game of the first round. Saint Kitts play a lot more games than most of these lower-tier Caribbean teams, and I think they’ll be able to handle Puerto Rico at home.
Haiti (A) vs Sint Maarten (D)
Sint Maarten are fresh off losses to both sets of Virgin Islands. Haiti should get a nice tune up to prepare for their more difficult matches in the later rounds.
Curaçao (B) vs Grenada (B)
Curaçao won the Caribbean Cup in 2017, beating out regional powers Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago. Grenada lost to Jamaica 5-1 just last week. This is Curaçao’s game to lose.
Saint Martin (D) vs Guadeloupe (A)
Saint Martin might be slightly superior to their Dutch counterparts, but they still don’t have what it takes to stop Guadeloupe.
Martinique (A) vs British Virgin Islands (D)
Martinique did well in the Gold Cup, and I think they’re real contenders to end up in League A. They should smoke the British Virgin Islands without much trouble.
