At roughly the halfway point in the Apertura season, it’s fair to say that 16 of the 18 teams in Liga MX are still in the playoff hunt. But today, let’s pretend that there are not 16 teams left in contention. Instead, let’s assume that the season was dramatically cut short after Jornada 8. Based on what we’ve seen so far, what would the playoffs look like? Who would be the favorite?
To find the answer to these questions, we’ll be a running a complex computer simulation (not really, it’s just my opinion) of what might actually happen if the quarterfinals were to be played next week. Let’s begin!
#1 Cruz Azul vs #8 Toluca
It’s very hard to bet against Cruz Azul right now, but as I’ve said a few times recently, it would be very on brand for them to get killed in the first round of the playoffs after having a magical regular season campaign.
Toluca would play their first home match on a Wednesday, meaning they don’t get that valuable advantage of playing during the daytime. Maybe they could hold on for a draw at Estadio Nemesio Díez, but I don’t see them stopping La Maquina in Mexico City. Cruz Azul advance 4-1 on aggregate.
#2 Monterrey vs #7 Tigres
The juiciest of the first round clashes. Another playoff Clásico Regio would be a delight to watch. I think it’s pretty clear that Rayados have had the better season overall thus far. However, Tigres have recovered some momentum with seven points in their last three matches. Monterrey have only four, thanks to a Jornada 8 loss to Puebla.
You expect any Clásico Regio to be tight, even if the teams aren’t equal in skill, and this series would be no different. It pains me to say it, but I think Rayados would advance 3-3 by virtue of being the higher seed.
#3 América vs #6 Querétaro
In this universe, Querétaro are the team nobody expected to even get this far. Camilo Sanvezzo has been on fire lately, with four goals in the last two matches for Los Gallos. Tiago Volpi is ever-present in the conversation for best goalkeeper in Liga MX.
But beyond that, do they have what it takes to go toe-to-toe with giants like América? Probably not. I think Querétaro puts up a valiant effort but goes down swinging 4-2 on aggregate.
#4 Pumas vs #5 Santos
Two teams with a similar trajectory. They both were very hot early in the year but have limped into the playoffs. Pumas had a nice comeback victory over León during Jornada 8, but before that were winless since Week 3.
Santos have also stalled, with no wins in their last three games. This is another series that could be super close, and I think it would all come down to which version of each team shows up. If we’re optimistic and say that good Pumas and good Santos both come to play, I like Pumas to advance on away goals. These two are so tight, but Pumas’ superior road form gives them the edge.
#1 Cruz Azul vs #4 Pumas
In an all Mexico City affair, expect Cruz Azul to be really tested. If Pumas get this far, we can assume they’re back in that early season form where they were just ripping teams apart. The only problem is that Cruz Azul have been doing that for essentially the entire season.
In a hard fought series, I think the pressure and playoff atmosphere gets to the inexperienced Cruz Azul side, and Pumas move into the finals, 3-2 on aggregate.
#2 Monterrey vs #3 América
Neither of these teams are strangers to the semifinals, and this is a series where all that playoff experience total cancels itself out. Although historically not the best in the liguilla, I think Avilés Hurtado has moved past his struggles. The winner will be decided by talent on the field.
And while both these teams are completely loaded with talent, I think América have no clear weaknesses, and they have a few too many offensive weapons for Rayados. América advances to the final, 4-3.
#3 América vs #4 Pumas
A Clásico Capitalino final. That means we can expect an incredibly chippy, incredibly hostile, and incredibly exciting final. Here’s how it would go: América draws 1-1 away in the first leg. They take a 2-0 lead at halftime of the return leg, and then the game descends into chaos as a 10-man Pumas pulls it back to 2-1, comes stunningly close to an equalizer, but ultimately falls just short. América are crowned Liga MX Champions and move one title ahead of Chivas all time with their 13th trophy.
