There is just one week left in the Liga MX Apertura regular season. With 16 matches behind us, we’ve got a mostly clear playoff picture, but decision day will still be full of action, with four teams fighting over the final two liguilla places. Beyond that, the all-important seeding is up for grabs among those teams that are already qualified. Remember that the higher seed is the tiebreaker after aggregate score and away goals in the first two rounds, so getting a high seed can make all the difference in the world.
There are far too many scenarios regarding seeding to lay out in this article, but if you wish to play around with it you can find the Liga MX playoff simulator here. When it comes to who’s in and who’s out though, we’ve got you covered. All computer percentages come from FiveThirtyEight’s Liga MX page.
Tigres UANL
Final Game: At Chivas
Computer Prediction: 99+% chance to qualify
There are technically three playoff spots up for grabs, but Tigres are more or less already locked in to one of them. It’s still worth mentioning, however unlikely it may be, that if they lose and Morelia/Toluca/Pachuca all win, and they blow some goal differential, they could be in trouble.
Toluca
Final Game: At Lobos BUAP
Computer Prediction: 93%
A win or draw automatically gets them into the liguilla. Should they lose, so long as Morelia and Pachuca don’t both win they’ll get in anyway. Querétaro could also technically catch them if they lose, but they’d need to make up a gap of 10 goal differential.
Monarcas Morelia
Final Game: Cruz Azul
Computer Prediction: 60%
A win automatically sends them to their 4th straight liguilla. If they draw, things get a bit dicey. They’d need both Pachuca to not win by any scoreline, and for Querétaro to not win or win by one goal. A loss is pretty much the same scenario except Querétaro can get away with winning by just one in that case.
Pachuca
Final Game: León
Computer Prediction: 39%
Pachuca need a win to even be in the discussion. Anything less than that immediately knocks them out of contention. Should they win, the only help they need is a Morelia loss or draw.
Querétaro
Final Game: Necaxa
Computer Prediction: 9%
Los Gallos are in quite the hole when it comes to goal differential, hence the low percentage chance of reaching the playoffs. Like Pachuca, they of course need a win. They also need Pachuca to lose or draw, and Morelia to lose or draw. As mentioned earlier, if Morelia draw, Querétaro would need to win by two or more to pass them.
