Surprises have been the norm in Russia over the past few weeks, with traditional football powers like Brazil and Germany kicked out of the tournament sooner than usual. After 63 matches narrowed the field, the FIFA World Cup 2018 final features Croatia and France.
Les Bleus will be strong favorites at -305, according to CanadaSportsBetting.ca, but the Croatians have earned a puncher’s chance at becoming the tiniest nation to win since Uruguay in 1950. France will begin a new dynasty, or Croatia’s cinderella run will result in an unlikely marriage to the World Cup.
FIFA World Cup Favors Larger Populations
The best athletes tend to gravitate to the most popular and available sports in their countries. American athletes dominate basketball and baseball. Canadians still rule international and club hockey.
Traditional World Cup powers boast large, football-crazy populations, diverting the majority of a nation’s athletic talent towards the beautiful game. Brazil features a population of above 200 million, Germany’s home to 82 million, while Italy’s population is 60 million. Football’s the sport of choice for those three nations, who’ve taken 13 of 20 World Cups.
Despite a population of just over four million, Croatia’s managed to develop a fantastic side, including top international contributors like Luka Modric, Ivan Rakitic, Mario Mandzukic and Ivan Perisic. Uruguay’s the previous “small” nation to win the World Cup, in 1950, when the tournament featured only 13 teams.
Since the World Cup expanded to include 24 and then 32 teams, the smallest country to win is Argentina, which out-populates Croatia by a factor of about ten. The 2018 World Cup in Russia’s been a remarkable ride. Croatia making the finals validates FIFA’s decision to expand the number of countries participating in the tournament.
Beating France is certainly possible, but all signs point to Les Bleus shattering the glass cleats of the Croatian side before their Cinderella run finishes with a World Cup ring.
France Better Organized Than Expected
Most football observers brushed off the French side as a talented team without a clear, cohesive identity. Nobody argued about the incredible top-end attacking talent of France – Griezmann, Mbappe, Pogba – but most didn’t consider the French defense to offer a consequential challenge.
Other than a remarkable round of 16 match against Argentina, which featured an incredible 4-3 finish, France’s defense and discipline has been the defining trait of their World Cup run. Coach Didier Deschamps hasn’t worried about critiques focusing on a lack of flash and forward movement.
Instead, his team’s dominated vital stretches of the pitch, greatly reducing the number of scoring chances for opponents. Australia managed to earn a penalty against France in the first match of the group phase. Hazard, De Bruyne, Lukaku and Fellaini couldn’t solve the French defense for Belgium. Uruguay’s combo of Suarez and Cavani were goalless. Peru and Denmark were the other two clean sheets for France.
Coach Deschamps leans on goalkeeper Hugo Lloris as the first and last line of defense for the French. In addition to providing leadership for backs and midfielders, Lloris has made outstanding saves early on in matches, giving his team breathing room.
Before the tourney, the French defense was questioned. Rather than falter, they’ve outscored their opponents. Samuel Umtiti’s header won the semi-finals against Belgium, Raphael Varane scored the winner against Uruguay, while Benjamin Pavard might have the goal of the tournament.
France quietly pulled Paul Pogba back to mark Fellaini during the semi-finals, part of the slow strangulation of the Belgian attack. This defensive gambit surprised those who expected Pogba to play a bigger role pushing the ball forward, but the integrity of France’s defending was significantly boosted by Deschamps’ decision.
Plenty has already been written about Mbappe and Griezmann, who share the French goal-scoring lead at three apiece. Croatia’s defense has been terrific throughout the tournament, beginning with clean sheets against Nigeria and Argentina, but they haven’t faced a challenge as strong as France’s multi-pronged attack. Mbappe should expect plenty of shin music on Sunday.
Did Croatia Play Too Much Football?
Surviving three extra-time challenges during the knockout round proves the psychological mettle of the Croatian club. Penalty kick victories over Russia and Denmark required fortitude, while the late winner from Mario Mandzukic avoided a third consecutive skills competition for a berth in the World Cup finals.
In effect, Croatia’s played four full knockout round matches to win their half of the draw, while France avoided extra time in the 16s, quarters and semis. Very little time’s given to rest and recuperate during the World Cup, with the knockout rounds including two games in four days, and three games in eight days when you consider the finals.
This might be the real deciding factor, especially considering the pace and skill which France brings to the table. Chasing Mbappe and Griezmann around the pitch will drain the backs and midfielders quickly if Modric and company isn’t able to control the ball. Croatia cannot start slow – allowing an early goal against France will create a near-impossible scenario.
France hasn’t started games well, which could give Croatia a slight advantage if they decide to push for an early strike before collapsing into a shell. Despite a strong tendency for favorites to win World Cup finals, there’s not enough data long term to determine long-term trends. As such, the French cannot disrespect Hrvatska with insufficient effort. All signs point to a World Cup victory for France in 2018, despite the Croatians fighting tooth and nail to the wire.
