This is your go-to guide to figure out what your favorite Liga MX team needs to do to get into the Apertura 2012 liguilla (playoffs). I’ve separated the teams by likelihood of getting into the playoffs, enjoy! Remember just one game left for each team.
Already guaranteed a spot- fighting for the Copa Libertadores:
Xolos, Leon, America and Toluca all have a spot reserved in the playoffs. However, all four will be duking it out in the last week of the season for the three spots that the Liga MX grants to the Copa Libertadores.
Cruz Azul: A draw against Monterrey guarantees Cruz Azul a playoff spot. Cruz Azul can even go through with a loss, unless the Morelia/Santos game doesn’t end with a tie and Chivas defeats Xolos and Monterrey defeats Cruz Azul by many goals and Jaguares defeats Pachuca by enough goals to overcome Cruz Azul’s goal advanatge (7 goal difference between Cruz Azul and Jaguares). As you can see, it would be almost impossible for Cruz Azul to not make it into the playoffs. You can breathe easy Cruz Azul fans.
Destiny in their hands:
Morelia: A win against Santos secures a playoff spot for Morelia. Morelia can also go through with a draw, unless the following 3 things happens – Monterrey defeats Toluca by alot (7+ goals) and tie Cruz Azul and Chivas beats Xolos, and Jaguares destroys Pachuca (7 goal difference between Morelia and Jaguares). Morelia can also go through with a loss, although it would be a tougher scenario, if 2 out of the next 3 things happen, Morelia would be out if it loses against Santos – Chivas defeats Xolos, Jaguares defeats Pachuca, or Monterrey gets 4 points from their last two games.
Chivas: A win against Xolos guarantees Chivas a spot in the liguilla. Chivas can also go through with a draw, however, if 2 out of the the next 3 things happen, Chivas would be eliminated if it ties Xolos- Santos defeats Morelia, Jaguares defeats Pachuca, or Monterrey ends its last two matches with at least one win and a +3 goal differential (currently at +0). Chivas could even go through with a loss, although this is the unlikeliest of scenarios, 2 out of the next 3 things would need to happen- Santos loses to Morelia, Monterrey only gets 1 point in its last two matches, or Jaguares loses against Pachuca.
Santos: A win against Morelia would automatically qualify Santos to the playoffs. Santos would also go through with a draw, but only if 2 out of the next 3 things happen- Chivas loses against Xolos, Jaguares does not defeat Pachuca, or Monterrey does not win either of its two games. Santos can also advance with a loss, if all of the following happens- Jaguares loses against Pachuca, Monterrey only gets 1 point in its last two games, Atlante does not defeat Pumas and Tigres does not defeat America; very slim chances there.
Monterrey: If Monterrey wins its last two games against Toluca and Cruz Azul, they are in the playoffs. (This section will be updated after Wednesday’s match against Toluca to make it easier).
Needs a little bit of help:
Jaguares: Chiapas would move on to the playoffs with a win against Pachuca, if either of the following events happen- Chivas does not defeat Xolos or Monterrey only gets three points from their final two matches. Jaguares would also move on with a draw if all these three things happen- Tigres does not defeat America and Monterrey does not win either of its two games and Santos loses against Morelia (or Chivas loses by 2 goals or more against Xolos). A loss eliminates Jaguares.
Need a lot of help (seriously, like a boatload of help):
Tigres: They must defeat America, and have 3 out of the 4 following things happen: Monterrey does not win either of its last two games, Jaguares does not defeat Pachuca, Santos loses against Morelia, or Chivas loses against Xolos. A draw or loss eliminates Tigres.
Atlante and Pumas: These two teams are playing each other, they each have 20 points, and they both have a very negative goal differential, which seriously hurts any slim chances they might have. Essentially, the winner of this match needs to win by a 5 or 6 goal differential, and have everything Tigres needs to get to the playoffs happen (see above), plus have Tigres not defeat America as well. Pretty much, Atlante and Pumas are done for the season.
Game over, thanks for playing:
The following teams have no chance at making the playoffs: Pachuca, San Luis, Puebla, Atlas and Queretaro.
Please let me know if you think I missed something (comments section at bottom of page), and I will add it. Thanks!